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GATE DA 2024 Q58: P(T | S) by Bayes' theorem

Question

Consider two events TT and SS. Let T‾\overline{T} denote the complement of the event TT. The probability associated with different events are given as follows:

P(T‾)=0.6,P(S∣T)=0.3,P(S∣T‾)=0.6P(\overline{T}) = 0.6, \quad P(S \mid T) = 0.3, \quad P(S \mid \overline{T}) = 0.6

Then, P(T∣S)P(T \mid S) is ______ (rounded off to two decimal places).

Try it: numerical answer: type the value

Numerical answer. No negative marking.
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Answer: 0.25 (official GATE 2024 final answer key)

Concept used: Bayes' theorem with the law of total probability.

First step: P(S)=0.3×0.4+0.6×0.6=0.48P(S) = 0.3 \times 0.4 + 0.6 \times 0.6 = 0.48, and P(T∣S)=0.3×0.4P(S)P(T \mid S) = \dfrac{0.3 \times 0.4}{P(S)}.

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Source: official GATE 2024 DA question paper and final answer key, organised by IISc Bangalore. Question paper · Answer key